Over fifty years, Madagascar has seen its per capita GDP fall by one-third, while it has almost tripled in Sub-Saharan Africa. Since its independence in 1960, each period of growth has been brutally offset by a socio-political crisis, compromising any hope of economic take-off. Why doesn’t a country with so many assets — natural and human resources, etc. — manage to get out of this pattern of back sliding? IRD researchers and their Malagasy partners are working to solve this riddle.
From original statistical surveys and through a critical summary of the existing research works, the IRD scientists and their Malagasy partners proposed an economic and socio-political review of the history of the Grande île. Consequently, they explain its disappointing performances through three structural characteristics: social fragmentation, geographical dispersion of the population and the absence of intermediary bodies between the citizens and the higher echelons of the State. These are just some of the peculiarities that perpetuate not only the strong concentration of power, but also, paradoxically, weaken successive regimes and permit their overthrow.
Malagasy society is strongly divided into class groups (castes) dominated by the “grandes familles”, a system run by powerful families that has endured throughout history. Today still, despite the official abolition of castes at the beginning of the 20th century, this inequitable hierarchical structure remains deeply entrenched. As statistical surveys of the Malagasy elite show, more than 50% of members of the ruling class are descended from this oligarchy, which represents barely 1% of the total population.
In spite of the democratisation that began in the 1980s, power has remained in the hands of this politico-economic oligarchy. At the highest level of power, the presidents and their close entourages continue to extend their control over society. Today, more than 80% of the members of the elite operate in at least two spheres of influence from among the army, business, politics or even religion, maintaining their domination over the population, who, despite their democratic claims, respect this hierarchical order.
The population of the island, the majority of which is rural, is very scattered throughout the territory. In their analysis, the researchers highlight the crucial effect of this “scattering” of the population on the functioning of Malagasy society. The low density and isolation of populations in rural areas results in the atrophy of “intermediary” bodies, a missing vertical link between the citizens and the fundamentally urban elite. Neither the local authorities, the political parties, the associations, the unions, nor other civil society organisations exercise real opposition. In the absence of these links between the population and the rulers, the latter are neither forced nor encouraged to take into account the majority interests, nor to have a medium or long-term vision for the country, only serving short-term vested interests.
The split between the population and the presidential clan, as well as the extreme concentration of power, invariably led throughout history to the fall of the regimes in place. In fact, the low popular backing of the governments leads to their weakening, in a context of increased aspirations that feed popular protest. The unfair effects of the growth periods, which essentially benefit a small fraction of urban society and accentuate inequalities, engender a deep dissatisfaction in society. This feeling, exacerbated by electoral irregularities and corruption, has systematically given rise to the overthrow of ruling teams.
This rereading of Malagasy history shows that, behind the declared discussions and ideologies, which may vary, the system and the practices in the highest echelons of the State have evolved little, maintaining the multi-faceted inequalities between nobles and working classes, coastal regions and highlands and rural and urban areas. Even so, the Grande île has shown signs of the ability to overcome its problems: episodes of democratic change, the emergence of a class of entrepreneurs open to the outside world, control of violence and a rise in citizen aspirations. The whole challenge for the Malagasy authorities lies in upholding these transformations by establishing a new social contract between the elite and the population.